Highest temperature in London on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s maximum temperature on 10 August at London City Airport will decide this market, with the winning band set by the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the headline day-high summary. The crowd is currently split almost evenly between **26°C** and **27°C**, each priced at 43%, which suggests traders see a fairly narrow outcome range rather than a strong move towards an extreme reading.[1]

That pricing sits below London’s best-known August outliers, but the historical frame matters: London has reached **38.1°C** at Kew on 10 August 2003, while Heathrow hit **37.9°C** the same day, showing that early-August heat can spike sharply in south-east England when a ridge builds over the UK.[5][9] More recently, London’s August temperatures have still shown meaningful upside on hot spells, with Heathrow reaching **36.4°C** on 7 August 2020 and **40°C** in the 2022 UK heatwave, although those were exceptional synoptic setups rather than normal summer conditions.[6][19]

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates for London, any late shift in cloud, wind, or maritime airflow, and whether the afternoon peak arrives before the settlement cutoff. Weather Underground’s own market page notes that revisions within the day can still count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late data updates at London City Airport matter as much as the headline forecast.[1] In practice, the probabilities will move on the back of model runs and any upward or downward drift in observed morning temperatures, with the balance between 26°C and 27°C likely to stay sensitive to small changes in cloud cover and sea breeze timing.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.