Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s August maximums are usually in the mid-20s Celsius, but the month can still deliver sharp spikes: long-run data put the average August high at about 24–25°C, while the all-time August record for Munich is 37.0°C, set on 13 August 2003.[1][17] For 10 August specifically, climatology points to a typical high around 24–25°C, with a historical record for that date of 35.9°C, so the market’s current 0% YES price looks tied to an assumption that an extreme heat event is very unlikely rather than impossible.[1]

The main trading cue is whether a continental hot spell reaches southern Germany and is captured in the *Daily Observations* at Munich Airport before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Munich often starts August warm and can still see convective rain or cloud limiting the day’s peak, so the exact timing of sunshine, storms and any frontal passage matters more than the monthly average alone.[17][18] Recent temperature history from the station on Weather Underground shows how quickly daily highs can vary around the seasonal norm, which is why the market should be read against the specific observation table rather than the broader day-high summary.[3]

Because the resolution source is the Weather Underground *Daily Observations* table for Munich Airport, traders should watch for late-morning updates, any forecast revisions for Bavaria, and whether temperatures peak before or after midday UTC. If the warmest part of the day arrives after settlement, it will not count, even if the afternoon becomes much hotter; that timing risk is the key dependency here.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.