Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of a weather prediction market, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the “YES” range. This implies traders believe the peak heat will fall outside the specified bracket, despite LaGuardia’s July 2026 forecast showing daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows from 68°F to 83°F[1]. Historically, 3 July 1966 saw the station’s all-time record of 107°F, making it the warmest day ever recorded there on that date[3]. Recent data from 3 July 2026 shows temperatures reaching 100°F by late afternoon, with readings of 99°F persisting through the evening[2]. Such extremes suggest the market’s zero probability may be misaligned with actual climatic potential, especially given the city’s warmest midnight ever recorded at 94°F earlier this week[4].

Traders should monitor official Wunderground updates for LaGuardia on 3 July, as the market resolves solely on its highest temperature for that day[3]. A key catalyst is the ongoing heatwave affecting the central and eastern US, which has already pushed LaGuardia to 88°F on 2 July[6]. Any sudden escalation in humidity or cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures, while continued clear skies may sustain highs near or above 99°F. Delta Air Lines has issued a high-heat advisory for LaGuardia, noting operational constraints that may correlate with extreme temperatures[8]. Watch for real-time adjustments in the National Weather Service feed, which recorded 100°F at 5:20 pm on 3 July[2]. These dependencies mean the market’s current pricing could shift rapidly if the heatwave intensifies or breaks unexpectedly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.