Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 5 July 2026, which will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to the “YES” condition. This implies the market expects the highest temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, despite recent evidence of extreme heat in the region. Historical data shows LaGuardia has recorded a midnight temperature of 94°F, the warmest ever for that time in New York City, and a daily high of 100°F on 5 July 1999, suggesting that temperatures in the 84–85°F range are not only plausible but have occurred under similar seasonal conditions[2][4][6].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Wunderground, as these are the official resolution sources for the market. Recent reports indicate both LaGuardia and Newark hit 104°F on a single day in July 2026, with heat indexes reaching extreme levels due to high dew points, reinforcing the possibility of temperatures exceeding the current market’s implied threshold[7]. A key catalyst is the official daily maximum temperature report released by Wunderground for LaGuardia on 5 July, which will be the definitive settlement data[8]. Any sudden shifts in forecast models or extreme heat advisories from local meteorological agencies could significantly alter the probability landscape before the settlement window closes on 2026-07-05T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.