Highest temperature in Paris on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will record its daily high temperature, a figure that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to the temperature reaching exactly 30°C. This stark 0% YES implies the market expects a deviation from that specific threshold, despite Paris’s typical July highs clustering between 20°C and 43°C, with an average high of 26°C and a historical peak of 43°C recorded in 2019 during a severe heatwave [1][2].

Historical data shows July 4 temperatures in Paris have varied widely, ranging from cool 20°C days to scorching 43°C extremes, meaning a 30°C reading is statistically plausible but not guaranteed [2]. The current 0% probability likely reflects recent meteorological trends or specific forecasts suggesting either a cooler day or a hotter spike, rather than a precise 30°C match, as seen in France’s record-breaking 45.9°C day in Gallargues-le-Montueux [8].

Traders should monitor immediate weather announcements from Meteo France and Wunderground updates for the Paris-Le Bourget station, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or heatwave intensity could alter the daily high [2]. Recent news confirms Europe is experiencing brutal heatwaves, with France recording its hottest day ever at 44.3°C in Landes, indicating that extreme heat is a live catalyst for this date [5]. Any official forecast adjustment for 4 July 2026 in the Île-de-France region will be the primary driver moving the line away from the current consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.