Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's temperature range will be captured before resolution.

August in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with humidity often exceeding 70 per cent. Historical data from recent summers shows peak temperatures most frequently occurring in the early afternoon. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature thresholds to be set above what Shanghai's climate normally delivers in mid-August, or there is genuine uncertainty about which specific range bracket will be needed. Comparable August readings from 2023 and 2024 reached 34–36°C on most days, providing a baseline for assessing whether the available resolution brackets align with seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor Shanghai's weather forecasts from mid-August onwards, particularly any tropical systems or heat domes that could push temperatures into unusual territory. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary section matters operationally—discrepancies occasionally arise from station calibration or reporting delays. Confirmation of which specific temperature range brackets are available for settlement will clarify whether the 0% reading reflects implausible upper-bound thresholds or genuine market indifference to a likely outcome.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.