Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement based on that primary source rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect no specific temperature range to be selected or that the baseline assumption favours a particular outcome by default.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with historical data from recent years showing consistent patterns during the summer monsoon season. The 18th falls within the peak heat period before the typical late-August cooling trend. Comparable August days at the station have recorded highs ranging from 31°C to 37°C depending on weather systems and humidity levels. The 0% probability reading may reflect either a technical market setup issue or an expectation that the resolution criteria will be met by a default range rather than an outlier temperature event.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August 2026, as these systems can significantly alter temperature patterns across the Kanto region. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through mid-2026 will influence whether August experiences above or below-normal heat. The specific resolution dependency on Haneda's Daily Observations table—rather than other Tokyo weather stations—means that local microclimatic factors at the airport location become material to the outcome.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.