Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July heat is a relentless, concrete-jungle furnace where mid-to-late month days routinely climb to 36–40°C with humidity exceeding 95%, turning the city into a sweltering trap that stores heat in its surfaces even after sunset. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific temperature range on 4 July 2026 contradicts the overwhelming historical pattern of extreme highs during this period, as Japan recorded its hottest July ever in 2024 with temperatures 2.16°C above average and peaks above 40°C in seven locations, including a record 41.0°C in Sano[1]. Recent data confirms mid-to-late July in Tokyo consistently hits 36–40°C, making any expectation of significantly lower temperatures statistically anomalous given the 2.16°C anomaly recorded since 1898[1][2].

Traders must monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s weekly heatwave bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time hourly updates for RJTT, as the agency has already warned of continued above-average temperatures into August following the 2024 record[1]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s highest recorded temperature for all times on 4 July at Tokyo Haneda Airport, meaning even a brief spike during peak hours (11 AM–6 PM) will determine the outcome[2]. With forecasts for July 2026 showing daily highs between 76°F and 91°F (24–33°C) at Haneda, the market’s 0% probability appears disconnected from the established trend of 36–40°C peaks in late July, suggesting a potential mispricing unless a sudden, unforecasted cooling event occurs[2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.