Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 100% |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| O/U 41.5 | 100% |
| O/U 43.5 | 100% |
| O/U 45.5 | 100% |
| O/U 47.5 | 100% |
| O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| O/U 51.5 | 100% |
| O/U 53.5 | 100% |
| O/U 55.5 | 100% |
| O/U 57.5 | 100% |
| O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| O/U 61.5 | 100% |
| O/U 63.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| Louisville O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Louisville 2H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 99% |
| Spread -10.5 | 99% |
| Spread -13.5 | 99% |
| Spread -14.5 | 99% |
| Spread -16.5 | 99% |
| Spread -17.5 | 99% |
| Spread -20.5 | 99% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 99% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 99% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 99% |
| Spread -0.5 | 97% |
| Spread -8.5 | 96% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 91% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 90% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Louisville O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 67.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Florida State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Louisville: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Louisville: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Louisville: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Louisville 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Florida State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Louisville: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Louisville Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Louisville: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Florida State vs. Louisville: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 75.5 | 22% |
| Spread -0.5 | 17% |
| O/U 65.5 | 12% |
| Florida State O/U 23.5 | 8% |
| Florida State O/U 20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| O/U 71.5 | 1% |
| O/U 73.5 | 1% |
| Florida State vs. Louisville | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Louisville 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Florida State vs. Louisville. In the upcoming college football game between Florida State and Louisville, scheduled for October 9 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Florida State" if Florida State win the game. This market…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.7M.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Florida State vs. Louisville. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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